EUCO Summit 20-21 October 2016

Live Blog

The Summit of the European Council began on Thursday, 20 October at 16:00. It will last until Friday, 21^st October in the evening. It features a loaded agenda, ranging from migration and trade issues to geo-strategic concerns and the status of the EU, following the adoption of Brexit by the citizens of the UK and the growing discontent among Dutch citizens about the conclusion of a free trade agreement with Ukraine by the bureaucrats in Brussels.

This page will report developments as they happen. Times are in CEST (=GMT +2 = Brussels).

Saturday, 22 October

12:00 n.

EU Trade Defence Policy: what is it?

As an explanatory note, here is the definition of the current 'defence policy' by the European Union in respect to imports from third countries:

The European Commission monitors and assists affected EU industries when non-EU countries take trade defence measures against EU exporters. The Commission also plays a more direct role in anti-subsidy and safeguard investigations when EU subsidies are involved and the EU as a whole is targeted.(source: Commission website)

 The Commission routinely investigates third countries, including Turkey. There are currently 39 cases open:  Trade defence measures by the Commission against Turkey

Turkey (like other third countries importing from the EU) apply similar defence tactics. There are currently 11 cases open: Trade defence measures against the EU by Turkey

Friday, 21 October

19:50

Towards a 'Dirty Brexit'?

The Summit is over. Nothing truly tangible came out of it. The discussion on Brexit was short and generic. Some member states wanted to be firm and to put the dots on the 'i' s in the presence of Theresa May, but their outbursts were limited to "No invocation of Article 50 TEU, No Brexit negotiations." 

Another highlight of the Summit was a 'mini-clash of civilisations': the executive in charge of the Brexit file at the Commission, Michel Barnier (France), who will lead the negotiations on behalf of the 27, said, reportedly (by Reuters) that he will conduct the talks in French. "No way!" roared Theresa May, the British PM. To be followed. Officials, it should be noted, have the right to express themselves in their native tongue. 

Meanwhile, I see in the wires that EU senior diplomats (probably at COREPER and EUCO) were given this evening instructions to "prepare for a dirty Brexit." The meaning of the term is at present unclear, but leaks have pointed towards a 'moving chairs' game by London that would extend the duration of the negotiations beyond the two years after invoking Art. 50 TEU. Other sources have just been quoted indicating that the Commission and the European Council are setting up task forces to work on a 'Dirty Brexit' scenario.

19:30

No conclusions on trade defence

More disappointing was the outcome of a EUCO half-day meeting today on trade. Its purpose was to celebrate the adoption of CETA and to give the green light to the Commission to develop measures aiming at strengthening the 'trade defence' of the Union. The term means imposing high duties to products from third countries, such as China, which subsidise domestic industries, leading to dumping.  Steel and aluminium are among such industries. Duties as high 300% were contemplated by Brussels.

Neither of the above materialised. 

A disappointed Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, told the press:

“Our citizens are increasingly concerned about whether the trade deals we negotiated are in their best interest. And I am afraid that we will not be able to continue to negotiate free trade agreements if we do not prove in practice that we are very serious about protecting European consumers, workers and companies.”

But the member states are divided on the subject. The Commission, on the other hand, is in a hurry to impose harsh measures on China, which has claimed her right to the status of world economy to be recognised by the World Trade Organisation. Once such status is granted, the U.S. and the EU will not be able to impose excessive duties.

18:30

Canada: "CETA negotiations have failed"

On her way from Namur (seat of the Wallon parliament) to Brussels airport and to her home, in Canada, Trade Minister Christia Freeland admitted defeat in signing CETA with the European Union by the end of this month. 

“During the last few months we have worked very hard with the European Commission and member states. But it seems evident that the EU is now not capable of having an international deal, even with a country which has values as European as Canada, even with a country as kind, as patient,” she said.

“Canada is disappointed, I am personally very disappointed, I have worked very, very hard. We have decided to go back home. I am very, very sad, really. Tomorrow morning, I will be at home with my three children,” she added, fighting back tears (source: Simon Marks, Politico).

16:10

Wallonia says a final 'NO' to CETA

The minister-president of Wallonia, Paul Magnette (socialist) has now given the final position of his region's parliament: it opposes the ratification of CETA. Magnette had earlier said that the Canadians had volunteered to negotiate directly with the Wallons. However, according to their president-minister, the concessions he and his people would have to make are too grave to be considered. 

Much of the opposition by Wallonia to CETA concerns terms on agriculture (hormones and Genetically Modified Organisms, or 'GMOs') and banking, according to Le Soir. Actually, the same concerns have been voiced by large number of members of the Belgian Federal parliament, which has so far adopted two declarations against the ratification of CETA, thus challenging the country's central government which has signed the agreement.

If no solution is found by Friday night, Belgium will enter a new period of domestic political crisis, which, this time, will most likely drag into its blackhole some EU institutions. 

15:45

CETA: Wallonia turns down Commission's ultimatum

The minister-president (regional prime minister) of Wallonia did not comply with the Commission's ultimatum to ratify by this morning the EU-Canadian trade agreement ('CETA'). He said the terms proposed by Brussels were still far from meeting his parliament's expectations. 

Meanwhile, the government of Canada, which has not been involved in the crisis, said it is prepared to discuss the matter directly with the Wallons, thus bypassing the European Council, the Council, the Commission, and the Federal government of Belgium. The Wallons also seem to prefer dialogue with Ottawa, according to La Libre Belgique.

This development is becoming embarrassing for the Commission, as it indicates that the population in the member states is becoming allergic to the powers conferred to Brussels on trade, and to the top-down negotiating style of the Union institutions towards the elected representatives of the regions.

09:30

No new sanctions for Russia

At the end of the official dinner, around midnight, the European Council issued a communiqué on its work on Thursday. A section aimed at threatening Russian individuals and organisations with sanctions--such as travel ban to the EU and freezing of assets--was dropped, as it did not gather unanimity among the member states. Instead of sanctions, there was a warning:

“The EU is considering all available options should the current atrocities continue.”

 As Italian PM Matteo Renzi told the media:

“it was difficult to imagine” this would mean further sanctions against Russia.

Southern European and Latin member states, except France,  favour a moderate stance towards Moscow and lifting the current economic sanctions, imposed in July 2014. 

Thursday, 20 October

23:30

Conditional rapprochement between Wallonia and the Commission on CETA

The Commission and the head of the government of the autonomous Belgian region of Wallonia have come closer to a deal. It is subject to several conditions and concessions requested by the Wallons. Its final conclusion still needs the approval by the region's parliament and the government of Canada, which was not present in these last-minute negotiations.

19:00

Uncertainty about CETA

The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (‘CETA’), signed between Canada and the European Union, is still in the shadow of uncertainty for its ratification, following the decision last week by the parliament of Wallonia, an autonomous region of Belgium, to reject it. Mixed trading agreements, as CETA and TTIP, need unanimous ratification by all member states and their autonomous regions, wherever these exist. 

France and Italy this afternoon in the margins of the Summit have been lobbying the Belgian and Wallonian prime ministers to ratify the accord. A meeting of COREPER is due to begin at 20:00  in order to seek a solution to the impasse.

Will the hawks dare?

On the official dinner’s menu tonight there is a hot item: a ‘strategic policy dialogue’ between the EU and Russia, which, in plain English, means confronting Moscow on its intervention in Syria on the side of the Syrian government. 

The hawks among the European leaders, led by the British, French and Germans, want more and tougher sanctions against Russia. But it is unlikely that anything dramatic will be agreed upon. As EUCO president Donald Tusk said at his arrival at the meeting “Today it is not about making decisions” on this matter. 

Meanwhile, Moscow announced this afternoon that it will make a ‘humanitarian pause’ of four days in bombing the rebels’ positions in Aleppo. This will reinforce the claim of the doves that dialogue with Russian president Vladimir Putin is better than confrontation.