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Puigdemont and the Independentists Back to Power

Madrid and Brussels  Can’t Read the Minds of the Catalans

The Catalans have voted: with high participation (81.94%), they have returned to power the political formation of Carles Puigdemont, the former President of the Government (‘Generalitat’) of the autonomous community (i.e., region) of Catalunya.

Puigdemont had held this office until  28 October 2017, when the Catalan Parliament was dissolved by the central Spanish government.  The Parliament had the previous day declared the independence of the region, following  a local referendum on 1^st October in which 90% of the voters had opted for the  separation of their region from the state of Spain. Puigdemont had to flee the country and take refuge in Brussels in order to avoid incarceration in Spain on the grounds of acts of secession.

The pro-independence movement, led by Puigdemont, has now won 70 seats in the Parliament, out of a total of 135, and will form a new government. Its leader is likely to be reappointed President of the Generalitat.

Carles Puigdemont (R): Happy again. But Inés Arrimadas (L) has placed
the Unionists in a strong opposition role in the new Parliament (EPE/reuters)

The ‘unionist’ movement, which is in favour of Catalunya remaining a Spanish province, will have 57 seats in the Parliament, while 8 seats will be held by non-affiliated members.

The results demonstrate that the desire for independence remains strong, in spite of systematic intimidation of the Catalan population by Madrid since last October and large-scale scaremongering about the region’s economy, in the event the independentists returned to power.

The configuration of the newly elected Parliament

The new configuration of the political landscape indicates that the region will remain highly polarised for the years to come. The reputation of the European Union as a defender of democratic values has, in this process, been tarnished in the eyes of the majority of Catalans. Brussels backed during the October 2017 crisis the Spanish government and disregarded evidence of political oppression of the Catalan voters and independentist politicians, exerted by the institutions and police forces under Madrid’s command.

It is difficult at the present moment to anticipate the next moves of the new Parliament and Generalitat. Will efforts of reconciliation be made by Barcelona and Madrid? Will Brussels mediate between the parties and listen to the grievances and expectations of the Catalans? Or will the Presidents of the European Council and Commission insist in their rhetoric of “this is an internal Spanish problem, we have nothing to do with it,” which they had used last October?

The behaviour of the stakeholders will determine in the weeks to come whether Spain truly possesses the political maturity necessary to be a Member of the European Union.

The Catalan crisis is also a litmus test for the integrity of the EU, when it comes to proving that the fundamental political principles of the Union are applicable not only to third countries aspiring at joining it, or at signing trade agreements with it, but also to incumbent members. There is little tolerance these days among the 500 million European citizens, from Helsinki to Malta, for the Ostrich Approach.

Summary of vote results Cataluña (2017)
Votes counted	99.89%
Parliament seats	135
Eligible number of voters	5,322,269
Participation	81.94%
Total no. of votes	4,360,843
Abstentions	961,426
Invalid votes	16,027
Blank votes	19,377

Source: La Vanguardia. Translated by J.N. Couvas.

Catalunya: A Bitter Victory—Regardless of the Victor!

A Very Strange Election

On Thursday, 21st December 2017 more than 5.5 million eligible residents of Catalunya will cast their votes for the election of a new Parliament for the Catalan Autonomous Community, following the legitimate assembly’s dissolution at the end of October by the Spanish central government.

These elections are important for the inhabitants of the region, and particularly for the ethnic Catalans among them, the majority of whom in the past two years had made clear that they wanted to gain full independence from Madrid.

Tomorrow’s elections, however, are a strange contest of wills. The Spanish government is determined to clip the wings of independence of their Catalan ‘brothers’ and subject them to the central authority. The indepententists, on the other hand, are decided to affirm their right to choose the form of governance of their community.

The three months that have elapsed since the firing of the regional government (‘Generalitat’) and the dissolution of the local parliament, has, however brought supporters and detractors of independence to rethink their respective positions.

The latest polls published this week indicate that the number of those now sceptical of independence may be 68%, while the number of those aspiring at a Free Republic of Catalunya has declined and might not exceed 32% of total votes.

The main reasons for such reversal are economic in nature. The dramatic events at the end of September have damaged local business, with 1,500 companies moving their corporate headquarters to other parts of the country, following incentives given by Madrid and by municipalities in other regions. Trade and tourism have also been hit hard: foreign exchange income has dropped by 70% in the region, compared to the last quarter of 2016. But the Spanish economy has also been impacted—decline of foreign income by 40% in total.

Catalan voters’ opinion has also been influenced by the realisation that the central government is stronger and more ruthless than they had anticipated. But the sadder finding was the lack of support, or even willingness to listen to their point of view, by the major European Institutions—the European Parliament, the European Council and the European Commission—and the indifference to their cause of the United States and NATO. The message, all of a sudden, became loud and clear: no Western power or bloc wants the implosion of the Spanish state—a Euro member and, supposedly, an outer bastion of the Union in its fight against massive illegal immigration from Africa and terrorism.

The elections on 21st December have already been labelled by local editorialists as “the strangest” since 1977—the year of the first free Spanish elections. The leaders of the independence movement have, during the campaign, lost their voice: many are in jail, the rest of the influential ones are fugitives in Brussels. Even if their movement wins, Madrid will never concede to separation, or to wider autonomy. 

As one of the senior editorialists of Barcelona’s daily La Vanguardia wrote, referring to the ‘receivables’ of both sides in the election: “Independentists without independence. Unionists without union.”

The ‘day after’ the 21^st December will have a bitter taste. Madrid, by enacting and enforcing in September  article 155 of the Spanish Constitution—a provision, which by today’s political thinking is a least democratic one—has lost the ‘hearts and minds’ of the Catalans for generations to come. Its authoritarian style has, perhaps, prevailed for the time being. But deeper dissent and instability may be around the corner. 

Brexit: EU Negotiators Are Running Out of Time, and Patience

EU's PULSE, WEEK ENDING 11 NOVEMBER

STALEMATE IN THE WESTERN FRONT

The deadline for agreeing on how Brexit will be implemented is getting closer. The European Council has set as its target-date the next Summit of the heads of state or government of the Union, on 14-14 December 2017. But Brussels is getting impatient, after last Friday’s bilateral meeting between the EU and British negotiators.

The meeting was, indeed, cut short, as it seemed that London was not prepared to offer anything new, according to the European chief negotiator Michel Barnier. Barnier has been accusing his British counterpart David Davis of stalling and being vague.

What is certain is that the two parties use different negotiating techniques. Brussels approaches the ‘divorce’ with a technocratic mind, going through ‘rights’ and ‘obligations’, with as much quantification as possible.

London, on the other hand, does not believe in the rounds-based negotiations (last Friday was the sixth round)—which are reminiscent of box matches, or of past negotiations between the West and Saddam’s Iraq or the Ayatollahs’ Iran. Westminster wants to have continuous, rather than fragmented, political discussions and bargaining among equals, instead of ‘accounting’ jargon.

Barnier, however, appears to be focused on money, primarily. Before getting into any political talks, he wants to get a firm commitment from Theresa May’s cabinet that the UK will pay in full its 13% contribution to the EU Budget, of about €30 billion, and to the pension scheme for the EU’s staff, estimated to be close to another €9 billion.

David Davis, UK Brexit Chief Negotiator (below):
Easy does it.

Other issues at the top of Brussels’s agenda are (a) commitment by Britain to observe EU citizens’ rights after the Brexit—particularly family reunification across borders, repatriation to EU states of social security rights by EU workers in Britain, and the supremacy of the European Court of Justice in resolving related disputes; (b) commitment by London to keep the borders between Northern Ireland (UK territory) and the independent Republic of Ireland open, without the built-up of any ‘infrastructure’—that is, without customs and police stations between the countries. It is difficult to imagine London agreeing to such demand, considering that the UK will be no longer part of the Customs Union, and that one of the mandates of the pro-exit voters to their government is to keep tight control on immigration!

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT: “YES TO AGRICULTURAL CARTELS!”

The European Union seems to be moving towards a totally unexpected direction: it is planning to introduce a set of laws to enable farmers cooperate and fix prices in view of protecting their revenues from the disproportional bargaining power of major intermediaries and distributors.

In a rare move, the European Parliament  (‘EP’) has taken the initiative to bypass the Commission and work together with Member States’ governments to put an end to practices by large food distributors which it suspects as being abusive vis-à-vis the producers.

The starting point in this thinking pattern was apparently a public declaration by French President Emmanuel Macron that France in 2018 will pass laws to improve the economic conditions of farm owners by letting them get around the distributors and sell collectively their produce at a higher profit.

French farmers claim that their income has dropped by 15% in 2015 and 2016 because of aggressive negotiating techniques and unfair distribution practices by supermarkets.

French Peasant Girl: Souvenir de Picardie.
Painting by Jean-François Millet (19th c.).

Allowing the farmers to create collaborative enterprises that will fix prices means accepting selectively the creation of cartels. This is formally against the core principles of the Internal Market of the EU, and of EU Competition Policy—a cherished and heavily protected domain by the Commission (see Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (‘TFEU’), Articles 101 and 102). There is, however, scope for a window of exemption in the legal texts, generally applicable in the public interest (Article 101(3) TFEU).

Meanwhile, the food distribution industry has just started a campaign to counter the intentions of the EP. Its lobbyists, in Strasbourg and Brussels, are at work to prove that both the consumers and the farmers will lose from any new configuration of the food industry. Prices, they claim, will go up, while the producers’ net profits will nosedive, as they will have to engage in distributing and marketing. Moreover, they argue, EU agricultural subsidies should be abolished, since the farmers will now become an active commercial actor—which, in a free market, should swim or sink on its own merits.