Friday, 27 October 2017

Point of Non-Return: Catalan MPs Don't Bend Their Spines, Vote Sî




 CLEAR DECISION. 83% OF MPs CONFIRM INDEPENDENCE


People of Catalunya Celebrate Independence, 27 October 2017

The Parliament of Catalunya this afternoon at the end of an extraordinary plenary session, unilaterally declared the independence of the autonomous region from the Kingdom of Spain. Seventy representatives voted in favour, ten against, and two cast blank votes.
It is the first time in recent history that a Spanish region secedes from the state, and a first for the European Union, too. Numerous independence movements succeeded, sometimes by shedding blood, in the 1990s, in Central Eastern Europe and the Balkans, following the collapse of the Soviet Union and of Yugoslavia.
Catalan Flag
Today's Declaration now gives additional ammunition to the central government of Spain, led by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to fully implement the decision of its cabinet last Saturday, confirmed by the Spanish National Parliament on Monday, to fully implement Art. 155 of the country’s Constitution, which provides for suspension of a region’s autonomy, dismissal of the latter’s government, stripping-down the powers of its parliament, and employing the country’s security agencies and armed forces to enforce the referenced provisions.

BREAKING NEWS 20:40 CET

Madrid's government has just sacked the government of Catalunya and dissolved the Catalan Parliament.

Rajoy has fixed the local elections for 21st December.


It is at present unclear what the next moves will be from either side, although speculation and theories abound. What is certain is that the native population and the Catalan diaspora will resist Madrid’s determination to crack-down of the secessionists. 

Foreign governments—namely British, French, German, American--made this evening brief statements of support to Rajoy. The European Council's and the Commission's presidents also said they will back Rajoy. However, it is not yet possible to fathom public opinion throughout the EU and other parts of the World. In Scotland, there are calls tonight to the local government to recognise Catalunya’s independence. A large portion of the Scots are aspiring at independence from London.

In order to better understand the emotional and moral grounds of the Catalan Parliament’s representatives, it is worth reading the full text of the Declaration, in its English version:
 
Coat of Arms of Catalunya

To the people of Catalonia and to all the peoples of the world.

Justice and individual and collective human rights, irrevocable foundations which sustain the historical legitimacy and legal and institutional traditions of Catalonia, are the basis of the foundation of the Catalan Republic. 
The Catalan nation, its language and culture have a thousand years of history. For centuries, Catalonia has maintained and run its own institutions in complete selfgovernance, with the Generalitat as the maximum expression of Catalonia’s historic rights. 
Parliamentary process, during the periods of freedom, has been the cornerstone of those institutions, materialised through the Corts Catalanes and crystallized in the Constitutions of Catalonia. 
Today Catalonia restores its complete sovereignty, lost and much sought for, after decades of attempting to maintain institutional coexistence, in an honest and loyal manner, with the other peoples of the Iberian Peninsula. 
Since the approval of the Spanish Constitution in 1978, Catalan politics has played a key role, displaying an exemplary, loyal and democratic attitude towards Spain, and a deep sense of State. 
The Spanish State has answered this loyalty with the refusal to recognise Catalonia as a nation; and allowing a limited and constantly re-centralising autonomy, more administrative than political; with profoundly unjust economic conditions and with cultural and linguistic discrimination. 
The Statute of Autonomy, approved by the Catalan Parliament and the Spanish Congress, and in a referendum by the Catalan people, should have been a steady and enduring new framework for bilateral relations between Catalonia and Spain. 
However, this political agreement was demolished by the Constitutional Court and resulted in new demands from citizens. 
Heeding the calls of a large majority of the citizens of Catalonia, the Parliament, the Government of Catalonia and civil society have repeatedly asked for an agreed referendum on self-determination to be held. In the face of total rejection by Spanish State institutions of all and any negotiation, violating the principles of democracy and autonomy, and ignoring the available legal mechanisms of the Constitution, the Government of Catalonia has called a referendum to exercise the right to self-determination as recognised in international law. 
The organisation and carrying out of the referendum has resulted in the suspension of self-government in Catalonia and the application of a de facto state of exception. 
The brutal military-style police intervention orchestrated by the Spanish State against Catalan citizens repeatedly violated their civil and political liberties and the principles of Human Rights, and contravened international accords signed and ratified by the Spanish State itself. 
Thousands of people, among them hundreds of elected and government officials and professionals in the communications and media sector, the administration and in civil society, have been investigated, detained, charged, interrogated and threatened with lengthy prison sentences. 
The Spanish institutions, who should remain neutral, protect fundamental rights and arbitrate in political conflict, have become an instrumental part of these attacks, leaving the Catalan people defenceless.
In spite of the violence and repression used to impede the holding of a peaceful democratic process, the citizens of Catalonia have voted by majority in favour of the foundation of the Catalan Republic. 
The founding of the Catalan Republic comes from the necessity to protect the freedom, safety and coexistence of all of the citizens of Catalonia and advance towards a better democracy and rule of law, and responds to the obstruction on the part of the Spanish State to enacting the right of a people’s self-determination. 
The people of Catalonia stand for legality, and respect for the law is and will be one of the cornerstones of the Republic. 
The Catalan State will abide by and legally comply with all provisions which make up this declaration and guarantees that the legal certainty and maintenance of subscribed agreements will form part of the foundational spirit of the Catalan Republic. 
The founding of the Republic is an outstretched hand as an invitation to dialogue. 
Honouring the Catalan tradition of seeking pact and agreement, we maintain our commitment to finding accord as the way to resolve political conflict. 
We reaffirm our fraternal solidarity with the peoples of the world, and especially with those with whom we share a common language and culture and the Euro-Mediterranean region in defence of collective and individual freedoms. 
The Catalan Republic is an opportunity to correct current democratic and social deficits, and to build a more prosperous, just, safe and sustainable society in solidarity with others. 
By the virtue of all that has been expressed, we, the democratic representatives of the people of Catalonia, in the free exercise of self-determination, and in accordance with the mandate received from the citizens of Catalonia:  
- CONSTITUTE the Catalan Republic, as an independent, sovereign, democratic, social State under the rule of law.
- BRING into force the Law of Transitional Jurisprudence and Foundation of the Republic.
- INITIATE the constituting phase, as a democratic, broad, binding and participative citizens’ process.
 -CLAIM the willingness to open negotiations with the Spanish State, without preconditions, in order to establish a collaborative framework for the benefit of both parts. The negotiations must be founded on the equality of both sides.
- MAKE IT KNOWN to the international community and the authorities of the European Union the founding of the Catalan Republic and the proposal for negotiations with the Spanish State.
- URGE the international community and the authorities of the European Union to intervene to stop the violation of civil rights and political rights which is in process, and to witness and follow the negotiation process with the Spanish State.
 -MANIFEST our interest in the construction of a European project to reinforce the social and democratic rights of citizens, along with the commitment to continue applying, without solution of continuity and in a unilateral manner, the legal system of the European Union, and the laws of the Spanish State and Catalan autonomy which transpose its laws.
 -AFFIRM that Catalonia has the unequivocal willingness to integrate into the international community as quickly as possible. 
The new State is committed to respecting the international obligations which currently apply in its territory and to continuing its part in the international accords of which the Kingdom of Spain is bound to. 
- CALL on states and international organisations to recognise the Catalan Republic as an independent and sovereign state.
- URGE the Government of Catalonia to adopt the necessary measures to make possible and effective this Declaration of Independence and the provisions of the Law of Transitional Jurisprudence and Foundation of the Republic.
- CALL on each and every citizen of the Catalan Republic to join with dignity in the freedom we have awarded ourselves and to construct a State that expresses in action and conduct our collective inspirations.
The legitimate representatives of the people of Catalonia. Barcelona, 

Sunday, 22 October 2017

The Pulse of the Union - Week Ended on 21 October



MORE  CITIZENS TRUST THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT


The European Parliament has gained additional confidence among European citizens, according to the results  of a recent official survey, which were published at the end of last week.
"The European Parliament sees an uptick in public opinion. An increase of eight percentage points now sees 33% of all citizens having a positive image of the European Parliament, while 42% of respondents still have a neutral image," claims the EP in its website.


Other ‘good news’ is that a clear majority of Europeans (57%) support membership of their respective countries in the Union. However, their expectations for additional protection from the EU remain quite high—against terrorism, uncontrolled immigration, and unemployment.


CATALUNYA: TEST OF WILLS BETWEEN MADRID AND BARCELONA


The events on Saturday, 21 October, following the activation of Art. 155 of the Constitution by the Spanish Government show that return to normality is still some distance away in Catalunya. 

The Catalan parliament will convene in order to debate on the position to be taken by Barcelona. The president of the Catalan autonomous government said on Saturday night that dissolution of his cabinet and call for emergency elections--measures imposed by the central government--"are not on the table," meaning that there will be disobedience and resistance against Madrid.

EUROPEAN COUNCIL SUMMIT: DIVISION AND CONFUSION


The European Council ('EUCO') Summit on 19-20 October was not expected to come up with spectacular announcements on anything. The meeting was, indeed, an informal gathering of heads of government or state, a practice adopted under the presidency of the Commission by Jean-Clause Juncker, on the instigation of the French and German leaders, in order to give the other member states the feeling of open dialogue without the necessity to come to formal decisions every time.

It had been expected that a common position--albeit unofficial--would have been taken in respect to the accession talks with Turkey,  to the negotiations with the UK about the latter's departure from the Union, and for encouraging (even sponsoring) a negotiated solution to the Catalan crisis. Around their large table, the heads were, apparently, not keen to hold concrete discussions. 


'AUTONOMIA' - THE NEW EUROPEAN BUZZWORD


Luca Zaia, Governor of Veneto and supporter of more autonomy
"Enough with taxes--(ex PM) Monti go home" (2012 rally) 

After Catalunya, two Italian regions--Lombardia (capital Milan) and Veneto (capital Venice) holding on Sunday, 22 October referenda aiming at taking their citizens' temperature for seeking extended autonomous governance in their respective jurisdictions. The main area of improvement sought is direct control of their finances, a large portion of which is currently diverted by the central government of Rome to less productive and poorer regions in the South of Italy. 

Turnout of voters was 50% in Veneto and 30% in Lombardia at 19:00 CET. There are no forecasts available for the preferences of the citizens who voted.

EASTERN EUROPEANS VOTE FOR PRESIDENTS


The Czech Republic and Slovenia have voted during the weekend for the appointment of the presidents of their respective republics. No surprises. The Czechs chose a pragmatist--a successful businessman and billionaire. 


Abe Reelected Japan's PM--Thanks to North Korea!



VOTE COUNT CONTINUES. HE MAY GET SUPERMAJORITY 

The coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (‘LDP’) and Komeito, led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, will return to ruling Japan, after today’s legislative elections.
The coalition has won, based on 95% of the votes counted, 303 seats out of a total of 465 seats in the Lower House, thus securing majority, but not two-third supermajority, for which 310 seats are needed.
Seat allocation in Japanese Lower House - 23 October - 00:30 JST

However, at this moment not all hope is lost, as 21 seats have not yet been allocated. In the previous elections, in 2014, Abe’s coalition had won 318 seats. Turnout has been 56.3%, consistent with a trend downwards since the end of WWII.
Abe has benefitted from his tough rhetoric against North Korea in recent months, according to large circulation daily Asahi Shimbun.
Shinzo Abe, Japanese PM

Abe’s government began last year negotiations with the European Union for signing a Free Trade Agreement. Japan has also given this year signals of interest in improving trading with, and investment in Turkey.
Japan’s head of state is the Emperor. His role, after the Constitution adopted following the end of WWII, is cosmetic. The country’s democratic system—a parliamentary monarchy—observes the principle of separation of powers among the legislative, the executive, and the judiciary.
The legislative is represented by the Diet, which is composed of the Upper House (‘House of Councillors’) and the Lower House (‘House of Representatives’).
The judicial branch consists of a Supreme Court and four classes of lower courts—high courts, district, family, and summary courts.

The executive branch is represented by the Cabinet, headed by the Prime Minister. He/she is appointed by the Diet after the legislative elections and, therefore, represents the ruling party, or ruling coalition of parties.

Saturday, 21 October 2017

The Czechs Get Their Own Trump

Billionaire, Anti-Euro Andrej Babis Wins Czech Elections


Andrej Babis (2015)


Andrej Babis, second richest person in his country (> 3bn Euros), won today the General Election of the Czech Republic with 30% of the votes cast. His closest competitor got 11.5%. Turnout of voters was a little over 60%.

Babis's party, ANO ('Yes'), is situated in the centre of the political spectrum. It will have to form a coalition with another formation. Babis will become the new Prime Minister.

Speaking to the media after the announcement of the initial results, he clarified that, contrary to perceptions, his party is pro-European but strongly opposed to adopting the Euro as its currency.

Game Over for Catalunya's Independence Dream?





LIVE BLOG


UPDATE 21 OCT 21.30 CET

Carles Puigdemont in his institutional declaration from the Palace of the Generalitat has condemned the decision made earlier today by the central Spanish government to dismiss the local cabinet  and to severely restrict the activities of the parliament of Catalunya until new elections, in six months at the latest.

Man of the hour: Carles Puigdemont,
President of the Generalitat -- dismissed by Rajoy 
Puigdemont said he will ask for a plenary session of the Catalan parliament to be held as soon as possible in order to discuss Madrid's enactment of Art. 155 of the Spanish Constitution, which he qualified as a hostile move towards the Catalan people and the worst measure taken against the region since the days of Franco's dictatorship (1939-1975).

He spoke in Catalan, but also in Castillan (official language of Spain) and in English, in an effort to carry his message directly to all communities concerned by the crisis.


UPDATE 21 OCT 19:30 CET

The President of the Generalitat (Catalan Government) Carles Puigdemont will make at 21:00 CET an 'Institutional Declaration' from the Governmental Palace. It should be transmitted live by TV3 .

The president of the Catalan parliament just finished a live public address, in which she accused Rajoy of irresponsibility. She also demanded the release of the 'two Jordis' (see previous update).


UPDATE 21 OCT 18.00 CET

The popular rally announced earlier has begun, from Passeig de Gràcia and is spilling over to the neighbouring avenues and streets, from calle Aragòn to Gran Via. The police has estimated that 450,000 persons joined the march. The Catalan government, members of the parliament and other personalities are heading the masses.

Slogans seen and heard: Independence, Democracy, Help Catalunya, Freedom, and Free the Jordis--a reference to Jordi Sànchez and Jordi Cuixart, two activists who have been jailed unconditionally and without the right to bail, for having facilitated secessionist demonstrations in the past few months.

The march had been scheduled for today by coincidence, but the application of Art. 155 has now given it a different meaning and dimension.



RAJOY ENACTS ART. 155 OF THE CONSTITUTION


Game over for Catalunya’s independence dream? The Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy announced this afternoon the decision of his cabinet to enact Art.155 of the national Constitution with the intention to halt the autonomous region's aspirations for secession.

The activation of Art. 155 was subsequently confirmed, a few minutes ago, by the Secretariat of the Senate (‘Mesa del Senato’), whose approval is required, with six votes in favour and one against.

The main provisions of Art. 155 to be put in place immediately or progressively, are as follows:

- The national government has the possibility to dissolve the Catalan Parliament. Rajoy would like to hold elections in the troubled region by the end of January 2018, in the hope that in the meantime the separatist movement will weaken. Members of his government would prefer the elections to be held in six months.

- Now that the Senate has approved the plan, the regional government (‘Generalitat’) will be dissolved in the coming hours. Its duties will be performed by the respective national ministers, granting Madrid direct rule over its autonomous province. This is a first in modern Spanish history since the adoption of the system of a parliamentary monarchy in 1975.

- The Genaralitat will continue to function under new management, as said above in order  to serve s usual the community.

- The Catalan Parliament will probably remain in place until the elections, in view of representing the citizens, but it will not have the right to propose a candidate for the presidency of the Generalitat.

- Other public functions will be under the control of the national government. These include: transports, communications, postal services, broadcast, IT, public finance, public order. To secure the latter, the local police will have a cosmetic role, at least until the next elections. Its powers and overall security for Catalunya will be assumed by the national police and the omnipotent Guardia Civil (gendarmerie, or national guard). The army might also be asked to intervene. Units of these forces are already in movement towards the region.

The reactions of the Catalan political parties are largely those of dismay, with a pronounced feeling of injustice and betrayal. The attitude of the King and of the government has repeatedly qualified as ‘coup d’état’, autocratic, and as exceeding even the harsh measures taken in the past against the Catalans by the Spanish dictator Generalissimo Franceso Franco.


A popular demonstration has been called by several political movements for today at 17:00 CET in the centre of Barcelona.

Friday, 20 October 2017

European Council Summit Ends--Future of EU-Turkey Relations Still Unclear



UPDATE 20 OCT 14:00 (Ankara Time)

The European Council Summit (‘EUCO’) has now ended. The heads of government or state have given separate press conferences to the media in attendance in Brussels.

Brexit

The main theme of today’s breakfast meeting and round table discussion was Brexit. There has been very little progress in the negotiations, as the parties’ positions still differ widely on Britain’s financial obligations to the EU. Brussels claims 60 billion Euros, while London evaluates its total commitments until March 2019 to 20 billion.
Here is an excerpt from Theresa May’s (Britsh PM) Q & A with the press:

Turkey

The relationship with Turkey was discussed during Thursday night’s working dinner, but no details have transpired. The representatives of the 28 member states have not agreed on how to handle Ankara, with many proposing to stop or reduce the substantial financial aid Turkey receives annually for structural improvements. It seems that there was, in the end, consensus among the 28 to ask the Commission to figure out how it could limit EU’s contribution to measures that enhance the respect for the rule of law by the Turkish government. The member states also agreed to be very vague on this matter in their official communiqué at the end of the Summit.

"guten Appetit!"



The day of the EUCO Summit began with a breakfast—of Franco-German inspiration, if one judges from the content of the dishes: croissants, cheese, ham, boiled eggs. In the official video clip it can be noticed that very few among the guests are touching the food. This is because almost all already had proper breakfast through room service! Working breakfasts are one of the most hateful (and unhealthy) chores in the routine of executives and politicians.


Berlin-Paris Axis Still Strong

One, Two Three--Merkel Sets the Tone for Gentiloni (IT) and Macron (FR)


Emmanuel Macron was again the star of the Summit. He shook the hands of the 30 top EU politicians (28 heads+2 institution presidents). He and Angela Merkel displayed the usual Franco-German friendship and common position on Union affairs.

Nouvelle Vague PR Specialist

The 28 discussed a recommendation by some members to change the decision-making of the EUCO from unanimity/consensus to majority voting. Angela Merkel in her press conference admitted that there had been discussion, but the proposal was not agreed. The matter will, however, return to a future EUCO agenda and will be limited to decisions concerning the member states of the Eurozone only. French President Macron has been pushing since September 2017 for letting poorer member states to adopt the common currency, but some members are blocking such initiative using the EUCO current decision-making process.
A Picture Is Worth Ten Thousand Words (or whatever...) - Macron (FR) with Borissev (BG)

Thursday, 19 October 2017

EU Summit Is Dull -- Crisis Intensifies in Barcelona and Madrid



FLASH 19 OCT 21:15 (Ankara time)

Little progress on any important issue in today’s European Council Summit in Brussels. Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker have just finished addressing the journalists. The main topics discussed by the heads of the Member States have been limited to financing the Italian effort to stop immigration to Europe from Africa, and to concerns over civilians’ safety after the recent fires in Portugal.

Questions from the media, and answers thereto:

- The Catalonian crisis: “There is no space” for the EU mediate among the conflicting parties (Tusk).

- Northstream 2:  No unanimous position among the 28 for negotiating with Russia. It may take time for the Commission to receive a mandate from the European Council to discuss the project with Moscow (Juncker).

The members of the European Council are now gathering for a ‘working dinner.’ It is possible that Brexit and the attitude to adopt in respect to Turkey’s application for membership will be discussed.
The Summit will continue tomorrow, 20 October.

Catalunya

The ultimatum given last week by the Spanish government to the Catalan regional government to disclose clearly whether it had decided, or not, to declare independence for the Autonomous Region of Catalunya, expired this morning at 10:00 a.m. CET. 

The Spanish cabinet will meet in an extraordinary meeting on Saturday in order to enact Art. 155 of the Spanish Constitution—a move which will trigger the suspension of all rights of self-governance granted to the autonomous region.

Latest dispatches from Madrid confirm that large units of the Guardia Civil (armed Spanish gendarmerie) are on the move from various provinces towards Barcelona, where they will take positions ahead of Saturday’s ministerial meeting.

Sources from both camps express vivid concerns as to the reactions of the sizeable number of Catalan separatists (over 2.2 million voters). The confrontation may escalate to armed conflict.