Brexit: Countdown Begins in March 2017

'Brexit' Is 'Brexit', says Theresa May

British Prime Minister Theresa May on Sunday in Birmingham set the deadline for kicking-off the departure mechanism of Britain from the European Union: by the end of March 2017, at the latest. “Brexit is Brexit”, she said, slashing any hopes for Europhiles that the popular decision of the June 2016 referendum might be ‘massaged’ through parliamentary debate and decision-making.

The announcement put an end to ambiguity and speculation among the members of the Conservative (‘Tory’) Party that the government might stall in triggering Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (‘TEU’), which enables a Union member state to leave the EU by giving proper notice.

Article 50 TEU, paragraphs 1-3 provide that: 

1.  Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements. 
2.   A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the future relationship with the Union. […].
3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of       the withdrawal agreement, or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in             paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned,       unanimously decides to extend this period.

Should the procedure above be followed to the letter and should there be no mutually agreed changes in the execution timeframe, Britain will be estranged from the Union by 1^st April 2019.

Theresa May won the hearts and minds of the audience at the inaugural speech of the 2016 Annual Convention of the Tory Party, which she chairs. First, she was clear about the timetable for starting the divorce procedure. Second, she did not give any signs that she is in any hurry to take her country out of the EU in an accelerated pace. This is likely to reassure the local business community, international investors, and foreigners who have already established themselves in the UK. The latter’s residence and employment status will, in fact, be preserved after the completion of the Brexit, according to the Prime Minister.

Where May touched a chord was certainly her clarification of the reasons why a majority of Britons voted for Brexit. She acknowledged that her fellow citizens were growing frustrated with the laws and regulations impacting their daily lives and future being made in Europe and judged under legal doctrines with which her country is unfamiliar.

Perhaps the boldest measure she announced at the Congress was the repeal (withdrawal, cancellation) of the European Communities Act—the backbone of European constitutional frame—which London had adopted in 1972:

“This historic [Great Repeal] Bill – which will be included in the next Queen’s Speech – will mean that the 1972 Act, the legislation that gives direct effect to all EU law in Britain, will no longer apply from the date upon which we formally leave the European Union. And its effect will be clear. Our laws will be made not in Brussels but in Westminster. The judges interpreting those laws will sit not in Luxembourg but in courts in this country. The authority of EU law in Britain will end.

“As we repeal the European Communities Act, we will convert the ‘acquis [communautaire]’ – that is, the body of existing EU law – into British law.”

Selfridges Mall, Birmingham. Photo by brianac37, form Dudley, England

Theresa May also brought to the fore the argument that has been for years strongly defended by British politicians, the media and large segments of society in favour of distancing their country form the Union: the shift of the Union over the past decades from a commercial association among European states towards a political project (chaperoned by Berlin and Paris). London has, in fact, routinely blocked initiatives aiming at following such direction.

“Whether people like it or not, the country voted to leave the EU. And that means we are going to leave the EU. We are going to be a fully-independent, sovereign country, a country that is no longer part of a political union with supranational institutions that can override national parliaments and courts. And that means we are going, once more, to have the freedom to make our own decisions on a whole host of different matters, from how we label our food to the way in which we choose to control immigration.”

Another element in her speech that caught the emotions of the delegates was her balanced nationalism. She succeeded to create a feeling of national pride, without falling into chauvinism and antagonism with Britain’s European partners. This came when she formulated her government’s vision—most likely her personal vision, indeed—about Britain’s future.

“It should make us think about our role in the wider world. It should make us think of Global Britain, a country with the self-confidence and the freedom to look beyond the continent of Europe and to the economic and diplomatic opportunities of the wider world.

“A truly Global Britain is possible, and it is in sight. And it should be no surprise that it is. Because we are the fifth biggest economy in the world. Since 2010 we have grown faster than any economy in the G7. And we attract a fifth of all foreign investment in the EU. We are the biggest foreign investor in the United States. We have more Nobel Laureates than any country outside America.”

The next few days will show whether the firm and pragmatic stance in her address will help to formally get the support of the members of her party—particularly the Tory Members of the British Parliament and of the European Parliament—at the end of the Convention, which ends on 5 October.

Meanwhile, polls over the weekend claimed that, should there be general elections in the very near future, the Conservatives would quadruple the majority of MPs in the Parliament (i.e., the gap between the Tories and the Labour), from 12 to 44.

This should be a great personal victory for Theresa May.