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Image: courtesy Culio Ruth © 2017

Puigdemont and the Independentists Back to Power

Madrid and Brussels  Can’t Read the Minds of the Catalans

The Catalans have voted: with high participation (81.94%), they have returned to power the political formation of Carles Puigdemont, the former President of the Government (‘Generalitat’) of the autonomous community (i.e., region) of Catalunya.

Puigdemont had held this office until  28 October 2017, when the Catalan Parliament was dissolved by the central Spanish government.  The Parliament had the previous day declared the independence of the region, following  a local referendum on 1^st October in which 90% of the voters had opted for the  separation of their region from the state of Spain. Puigdemont had to flee the country and take refuge in Brussels in order to avoid incarceration in Spain on the grounds of acts of secession.

The pro-independence movement, led by Puigdemont, has now won 70 seats in the Parliament, out of a total of 135, and will form a new government. Its leader is likely to be reappointed President of the Generalitat.

Carles Puigdemont (R): Happy again. But Inés Arrimadas (L) has placed
the Unionists in a strong opposition role in the new Parliament (EPE/reuters)

The ‘unionist’ movement, which is in favour of Catalunya remaining a Spanish province, will have 57 seats in the Parliament, while 8 seats will be held by non-affiliated members.

The results demonstrate that the desire for independence remains strong, in spite of systematic intimidation of the Catalan population by Madrid since last October and large-scale scaremongering about the region’s economy, in the event the independentists returned to power.

The configuration of the newly elected Parliament

The new configuration of the political landscape indicates that the region will remain highly polarised for the years to come. The reputation of the European Union as a defender of democratic values has, in this process, been tarnished in the eyes of the majority of Catalans. Brussels backed during the October 2017 crisis the Spanish government and disregarded evidence of political oppression of the Catalan voters and independentist politicians, exerted by the institutions and police forces under Madrid’s command.

It is difficult at the present moment to anticipate the next moves of the new Parliament and Generalitat. Will efforts of reconciliation be made by Barcelona and Madrid? Will Brussels mediate between the parties and listen to the grievances and expectations of the Catalans? Or will the Presidents of the European Council and Commission insist in their rhetoric of “this is an internal Spanish problem, we have nothing to do with it,” which they had used last October?

The behaviour of the stakeholders will determine in the weeks to come whether Spain truly possesses the political maturity necessary to be a Member of the European Union.

The Catalan crisis is also a litmus test for the integrity of the EU, when it comes to proving that the fundamental political principles of the Union are applicable not only to third countries aspiring at joining it, or at signing trade agreements with it, but also to incumbent members. There is little tolerance these days among the 500 million European citizens, from Helsinki to Malta, for the Ostrich Approach.

Summary of vote results Cataluña (2017)
Votes counted	99.89%
Parliament seats	135
Eligible number of voters	5,322,269
Participation	81.94%
Total no. of votes	4,360,843
Abstentions	961,426
Invalid votes	16,027
Blank votes	19,377

Source: La Vanguardia. Translated by J.N. Couvas.

Catalunya: A Bitter Victory—Regardless of the Victor!

A Very Strange Election

On Thursday, 21st December 2017 more than 5.5 million eligible residents of Catalunya will cast their votes for the election of a new Parliament for the Catalan Autonomous Community, following the legitimate assembly’s dissolution at the end of October by the Spanish central government.

These elections are important for the inhabitants of the region, and particularly for the ethnic Catalans among them, the majority of whom in the past two years had made clear that they wanted to gain full independence from Madrid.

Tomorrow’s elections, however, are a strange contest of wills. The Spanish government is determined to clip the wings of independence of their Catalan ‘brothers’ and subject them to the central authority. The indepententists, on the other hand, are decided to affirm their right to choose the form of governance of their community.

The three months that have elapsed since the firing of the regional government (‘Generalitat’) and the dissolution of the local parliament, has, however brought supporters and detractors of independence to rethink their respective positions.

The latest polls published this week indicate that the number of those now sceptical of independence may be 68%, while the number of those aspiring at a Free Republic of Catalunya has declined and might not exceed 32% of total votes.

The main reasons for such reversal are economic in nature. The dramatic events at the end of September have damaged local business, with 1,500 companies moving their corporate headquarters to other parts of the country, following incentives given by Madrid and by municipalities in other regions. Trade and tourism have also been hit hard: foreign exchange income has dropped by 70% in the region, compared to the last quarter of 2016. But the Spanish economy has also been impacted—decline of foreign income by 40% in total.

Catalan voters’ opinion has also been influenced by the realisation that the central government is stronger and more ruthless than they had anticipated. But the sadder finding was the lack of support, or even willingness to listen to their point of view, by the major European Institutions—the European Parliament, the European Council and the European Commission—and the indifference to their cause of the United States and NATO. The message, all of a sudden, became loud and clear: no Western power or bloc wants the implosion of the Spanish state—a Euro member and, supposedly, an outer bastion of the Union in its fight against massive illegal immigration from Africa and terrorism.

The elections on 21st December have already been labelled by local editorialists as “the strangest” since 1977—the year of the first free Spanish elections. The leaders of the independence movement have, during the campaign, lost their voice: many are in jail, the rest of the influential ones are fugitives in Brussels. Even if their movement wins, Madrid will never concede to separation, or to wider autonomy. 

As one of the senior editorialists of Barcelona’s daily La Vanguardia wrote, referring to the ‘receivables’ of both sides in the election: “Independentists without independence. Unionists without union.”

The ‘day after’ the 21^st December will have a bitter taste. Madrid, by enacting and enforcing in September  article 155 of the Spanish Constitution—a provision, which by today’s political thinking is a least democratic one—has lost the ‘hearts and minds’ of the Catalans for generations to come. Its authoritarian style has, perhaps, prevailed for the time being. But deeper dissent and instability may be around the corner.