European Council: A Slippery--And Sleepy--Week Ahead?

Informal Summit, 19-20 October

The European Council will hold on 19-20 October in Brussels a Summit of the Heads of State and Government of the EU member states. The meeting is organised by the rotating Presidency of the Council of the EU (Consilium), which this semester is held by Estonia. Its sessions will be chaired by The European Council’s President Donald Tusk.

The agenda features the following discussion items:

• Migration
• Digital Europe – Digital Single Market
• Defence
• External Relations
• Brexit Negotiations – Progress

Non-committal Re-evaluation of Turkey’s Membership Application

The discussion on External Relations is expected to be dedicated to the current status of the relationship between candidate state Turkey and the Union. There is growing tension since the beginning of 2017 in the rapports between the parties, and the 28 will explore the possible avenues forward and attempt to determine the attitude to adopt.

The members of the European Council will examine a status report to be submitted by the Commission. Political sources during the weekend were speculating that the image stemming from the report should be bleak.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will face a critical audience among her peers, who consider that she has given the wrong signals to Ankara with the prompt and generous offer in 2015-2016 of 3 billion Euros, renewable, in exchange for Turkish cooperation in controlling the inflow of Middle Eastern immigrants to the Balkans and Europe.

Merkel is in a particularly tough spot, as not only the opposition, but also her political allies are sceptical about her judgment. She has volunteered in recent weeks to adopt a tough stance vis-à-vis the Turkish government, but several member states are asking for more: the cancellation or, at least, suspension of Turkey’s accession to membership process. Other member states have in the past few days proposed economic sanctions, including freezing the assets of Turkish politicians deposited in the EU-EEA. She has called for moderation, preferring a protracted continuation of negotiations, without a guarantee for eventual membership.

Commenting on the expectations for this week’s Summit, Chancellor Merkel said in an online announcement on Saturday:

“We will certainly not take any decisions, but I would like to hear my colleagues’ opinions as to how they see bilateral relations with Turkey, and what conclusions we can potentially draw from them.”

Angela Merkel - First among equals - European Council, Commemoration of Treaty of Rome, 25-3-2017

After Brexit and Catalunya, the Union is again divided on an issue of importance to its future. There are three camps among the member states in relation to Turkey’s membership:

Those who are in favour—Ireland; Italy, Malta; Spain, and Portugal; Finland and Sweden; Estonia, Latvla, and Lithuania; Romania and Slovenia; Greece and Cyprus. The reasons for a positive position vary widely among themselves. The first group and Romania are mostly interested in trade.  Greece and Cyprus prefer to see Turkey as a fellow member rather than a potential enemy before their doors. The other groups have in recent months become less supportive, as they have concerns on the willingness of Turkey to comply with the political accession criteria of the EU.

Those who are clearly against: Germany, Austria and Belgium.

Those who have traditionally been against but have kept their position blurred in the past 18 months: France, Luxembourg and Denmark.

Those who are unsure, because of domestic pressures: UK, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Croatia.

The above positions are those of the political parties in power. Opposition parties have often very different views—favourable or unfavourable to Turkey’s membership. And there are no reliable data about the mood of the European citizens on enlargement. The last official EU-wide survey was apparently held by Eurobarometer in 2010-2011.

The admission of a new member of the size and political weight of Turkey will entail adjustment of the Treaties (Art. 49 TEU). There will be tense negotiations at various levels and on different substantive subjects between Ankara and Brussels. The negotiated agreement will have to be accepted unanimously by the EU incumbent members and Turkey and be ratified by all contracting states, per their respective constitutional provisions—mostly through parliamentary procedure or referendum.

As it is improbable that the 28 will take this week a clear position on what to do now with Turkey’s accession application, enlargement towards the Southeast will return on the agenda time and again for the years to come.

Media sources: European Council,, Südwest Presse, Deutsche Welle, Die Welt.-- Image: Piotr Tracz, Wikimedia Commons

Highlights of events and news in the EU in the week ending on 14 October

Independence: divisions in Barcelona, cooling-off in Madrid, Halloween in Brussels?

The political sort of Cataluña (pronounced Catalunya) remained last week at the top of the news from Spain. On Monday, the head of the separatist coalition was expected to declare the independence of the Catalan province, following the victory of his political movement in the 1^st October referendum. He did not, however, cross that line, preferring to launch to the central government, in Madrid, an invitation to discuss the modalities of the separation.

The immediate reaction of the Spanish Prime Minister was to demand a clear position from Barcelona: are the Catalans declaring independence or not? His question was assorted with a threat: in the affirmative, he would trigger Article 155 of the National Constitution, which provides for prohibition of sedition by an autonomous province and grants to the central government the powers to use the armed forces in order to impose order, and to abolish the autonomy of the dissenting entity. This would mean Catalunya returning to the status it had during the dictatorship years of General Franco (1939-1975).

Constitutionalists on both sides were quick to remark that applying Article 155 is not as simple as some politicians believe and that it might bring the whole country into chaos and provoke the reaction of foreign states and of the international financial community.

Meanwhile, the views of the independentist parties are increasingly split among those who want an immediate implementation of the result of the referendum and those who would prefer patience and a negotiated divorce with Madrid. The reasons for the latter are mostly economic: in the nine days after the vote more than 500 firms headquartered in Barcelona have announced their decision to relocate to Madrid, fearing that independence would cause rapid exit of the independent region from the Euro and commercial isolation from the EU.

Barcelona -- Avenida Gaudi

In fact, the Commission has been avoiding to take a clear position on Catalunya’s vote which favours independence. Its president Jean-Clause Juncker said on Friday that he was “very concerned” with the prospect of the Catalans splitting from Spain. He said that if it happened, other EU member states would experience similar events. “It is already difficult to govern a Union of 28 states, even 27…I don’t want to be in a position to have to deal with 98 members”, he added.

Catalunya had asked before the referendum for the Commission or the European Council to mediate between Barcelona and Madrid and find an amicable way for the separation. But Brussels had declined the request, saying that the only way for a Union institution to be involved was through an invitation to intervene by both conflicting parties. It should be reminded that Juncker had on 14 September declared that he would respect the result of the referendum, even if it meant independence for Catalunya.

A the end of the week, Madrid moderated its tone, after the central government admitted that it would have to revise downwards its projections for growth for 2018. It made allusions to the possibility of focusing the forthcoming negotiations with the break-out region on granting the latter more powers to manage its own financial income—a long standing point of tension between the parties.

Euro. Disunited Eastern Europe

While Spain and Catalunya are obviously moving apart, Juncker faces another strong headache. The Eastern members of the EU, who joined in 2004, 2007 and 2013 are in growing disagreement with one another on the emerging monetary policy of Brussels and of the leading powers of the Union.

French President Emmanuel Macron in September announced his plan to “deepen the Eurozone integration”, by enlarging it in order to have a common currency throughout the EU. Juncker echoed the intention, in his speech on the ‘State of the Union’ on 13 September:

“If we want the euro to unite rather than divide our Continent, then it should be more than the currency of a select group of countries. The euro is meant to be the single currency of the Union,” he concluded.

The more recent member states, Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania, have expressed their willingness to go along with the project. But other Eastern countries—the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland—are sceptical, even hostile to the idea. Their current main concerns are their comparatively low and stagnating GDP per capita, migration, defence (looking at Russia), and terrorism. They are not necessarily against the common currency, but they resent any move by Brussels and Paris to impose their timing on them. Brexit has also added to their questioning of the true meaning of European Integration. Spirits are not likely to calm, as we are moving towards the elections of 2019 for the European Parliament.

German President: “Reconciliation, the European Model for Peace”

In Rome last weekend and Monday, for the commemoration of the 500^th anniversary of the Reformation of the Church by the Protestants of Martin Luther (1517), the German President  Frank-Walter Steimeier seized the opportunity to remind to his audience that Europe has experienced devastating wars throughout its history, but has survived thanks to its prevailing culture of reconciliation.

“From Britain and Catalonia, to Poland and Greece […] it is clear the effect people’s emotions can have on politics,” he said. “Emotions and feelings are never secondary.”

And he added: 

“Reconciliation between Protestants and Catholics could be used as a model for coexistence in Europe.”

True. But reconciliation always followed conflict, such as the Thirty Years War (1618-1648), which put the Protestants and the Catholic against each other, causing tremendous casualties and massive displacements of populations. According to historians, Germany lost 20 percent of its people. Nevertheless, the ‘European Way’ still remains the best remedy for halting ethnic and religious hatred. Ideally, it should be adopted before, rather than after disaster!

February 1945, Yalta -- Charchill and Stalin
Reconciliation of interests, before the Cold War!

Competition. Commission’s New Target: Food Retail Distribution

The Commission has plans for a new war: ‘straiten up’ the food retail industry of the EU. Brussels is considering a series of laws to discipline the major supermarkets, which have been, apparently, abusing of their bargaining power in respect to the farming community.

On the Commission’s list: Tesco, Carrefour, Lidl, and a few others. Updates in the coming weeks.

EU farmers -- Never happy?

Catalan Separatist Leader Addresses Referendum Voters

BREAKING NEWS

The Catalan separatist leader Carles Puidmenont has just begun speaking on television at the Regional Parliament in Barcelona in view of outlining his programme for enacting the result of the 1st October referendum, in which 90% of the voters said 'Yes' to the independence of Catalunya, the NE region of Spain.

Although it is early to judge, his approach will most likely be to engage into dialogue with the national government in Madrid for negotiating a smooth separation.

Live broadcast of the speech at:

Live from Barcelona

The Pulse of the Union This Week

Highlights of events and news in the EU in the week ending on 7 October

 

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT

The Members of the European Parliament (‘MEPs’) held plenary sessions this week in Strasbourg. Main decisions, proposals and concerns:

- They regretted that no progress has been made on key points of the issues under negotiation between the EU and the UK: the rights of Union citizens in Britain after Brexit; the status of Northern Ireland (UK) in terms of free movement with the Republic of Ireland (EU); the financial obligations of Britain towards the EU.

- Opinions of MEPs widely differed on the use of violence by the national police during the Catalan referendum and on whether Rule of Law and respect for the individual freedoms and rights were observed by Madrid. The right, or not, of Catalunya to declare independence under the Spanish constitution was debated. The conclusion was to call on both sides to engage in a dialogue.

- The MEPs rejected a legislative proposal by the European Commission, which aimed at exempting some chemicals in pesticides from having to be tested before their use could be authorised. Such chemicals are suspected of disrupting the endocrine function in humans and animals. The World Health Organisation (‘WHO’) in a recent report provided evidence that they can cause adverse reproductive effects (infertility, cancers, malformations) and could also hamper thyroid function, brain function, cause obesity, and affect insulin production, thus facilitating the on-setting of diabetes on healthy individuals.

- The EP gave its green light to establish a new independent body, the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (‘EPPO’), headquartered in Luxembourg, with the authority to investigate and prosecute EU fraud and other crimes affecting the financial interests of the Union. In 2015 fraud caused a loss of €637.6 million to the EU budget. Twenty member states have confirmed their participation, but other countries may opt-in in the future. The office has been mostly opposed by the UK, Ireland and the Scandinavian states.

- Following Ryanair’s recent massive cancellation of flights, affecting 400,000 passengers, the Parliament has urged the Council to review the legislation on passenger rights. Ryanair is currently refusing to pay any compensation to the stranded passengers.

- The MEPs issued a resolution to combat child marriages in developing countries and induce such countries to implement measures that enhance education, economic empowerment, participation of women in decision-making, and give better access to services on sexual and reproductive health.

Data in the possession of the Parliament reveal that:

- One in every three girls in developing countries is married before turning 18

- Complications in pregnancy and childbirth are the leading cause of death for girls aged 15 to 19 in low- and middle-income countries

- 60% of child brides in developing countries have no formal education

COMMISSION

Competition Policy

- The European Commission has decided to refer Ireland to the European Court of Justice, in accordance with Art. 108 (2) TFEU, for failing to recover from Apple a state aid which Dublin had granted over several years to the U.S. company in the form of tax exemption. The state aid is worth up to €13 billion.

- The Commission is working on measures to be taken against Luxembourg, should the member state does not recover the amount of €250 million from Amazon. The U.S. company has profited between 2006 and 2014, according to the Commission, from undue tax benefits, which gave it unfair economic advantage in respect to other businesses.

Commissioner Vestager

“[With the legal action against Ireland and the ruling on Amazon in Luxembourg] we have come a long way [on implementing the state aid provisions of the TFEU]. A number of EU countries have made an effort to comply with EU state aid rules by changing their ruling practices”, said Competition Commissioner Magrethe Vestager (DK) at a press conference on 4 October.

GREAT BRITAIN

UK PM Theresa May

- The ruling party is going through tough times. After a speech to the annual conference of the members of the Conservatives, there is growing uncertainty about Theresa May’s leadership style and her ability to keep the troops together in such critical time—the difficult negotiations with the EU on the modalities of the Brext. There were on Friday rumours of a possible ‘palace revolution’ among Tory MPs to force the Prime Minister to resign.

- Criticism has been going on for months, but Theresa May’s speech reinforced the belief of her opponents within the Party, and negatively influenced even some of her moderate backers, that she does not have ‘what it takes’ to lead the Kingdom out of the Union.

- She ran, indeed, into problems during her address to the members, but the whole incident seems to have been exaggerated by the media. A large number of UK journalists and broadcasters have been antagonistic to Brexit and to her, personally, since last year. She may have not been brilliant in handling this event, indeed. For the common observer, this can be a lesson on public speaking.

Murphy’s law proved once more valid:

“If anything can go wrong, it will.”

Catalan Referendum EL 1-0: Voters Brutalised by Police

'ULTIMA ORA 20:00

The referendum for the independence of Catalunya has been completed, but the day of the 1st October 2017 will remain as a black stain in the history of the region and of Spain.

There are no specific data at this time on the turnout of voters. The central Spanish government of Madrid has done all it could to abort the vote and to intimidate those who wanted to vote. Brutal force has been used by the Guardia Civil (gendarmerie) dispatched to Barcelona and to major urban areas of the autonomous region. The gendarmes forcibly evacuated polling stations and evicted without restrain those waiting to cast their ballot. Los Mossos (local police) have been accused by Madrid's Ministry of Interior to have stayed on the sides of the events.

At least 430 civilians had been injured by 15:00 hours, according to Barcelona's department of health. A majority are women and elderly citizens. The security forces have used freely fire arms, shooting rubber bullets. 

The deliberate use of rubber bullets has been scrutinised, and condemned in the past on many occasions by the UN's Human Rights Committee and by the European Court of Human Rights ('ECtHR') as being in breach of Article 6 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights ('ICCPR') and of Article 2 of the European Convention on Human Rights ('ECHR'), respectively.

The photographs and video clip below illustrate the climate in Barcelona on this Sunday. 

It is surprising, and regrettable, that until Sunday evening  the European Council and the Commission have not attempted to talk the central Spanish government out of violence against, and disproportionate repression of defenceless civilians. The institutions of the EU have missed an opportunity to establish credibility as staunch defenders of human dignity and of freedom of expression among the public opinion of third countries, which aspire at becoming members of the Union.

La Guardia Civil evicts voters by force from polling stations

Photos from The National, Scotland

Two Thirds of Catalans Will Vote – SI to Independence Seems a Winner

• There are celebrations, and violence, in the air of Catalunya and its capital Barcelona. The autonomous province in the Northeast of Spain is preparing for a referendum on 1^st October to decide whether its local government should begin proceedings for independence.

Catalunya (in red)

The national Spanish government in Madrid has banned the referendum, and its Constitutional Court has declared it illegal. Yet, a large majority of the 7.5 million Catalans are determined to cast their vote, in spite of massive concentration in the main cities of Spanish gendarmes and military forces, and the occupation of schools by anti-independentists in an effort to stop the poll. The situation is likely to get worse on Saturday and Sunday.

In spite of the effort by Madrid to put an end to the movement, manu military and through intimidation, with police raids to the offices of Catalan political parties, with the detention of local politicians and journalists, and the decision of the Ministry of Communications to disrupt the functioning of the Internet in order to sabotage online voting,  foreign observers are now convinced that the referendum will be held. 

The largest circulation Catalan newspaper La Vanguardia published today the results of an opinion poll commissioned by the Scottish daily The National. The data released predict that 62% of the eligible voters will go to the polling stations in the region, while 38% will stay home. Of these voters, 83% will vote ‘Sì’ (yes) for independence and 16% ‘No’. Two per cent will cast a blank or invalid bulletin.

Front page of The National of Scotland on 30 September 2017

What will happen the ‘Day After’? Not clear at this time. The referendum is non-binding within the context of the Spanish Constitution, and following the recent judgement by Spain’s Constitutional Court. So, no immediate consequences are expected. But a strong ‘Yes’ position by the residents will trigger a series of actions by the local political forces in the effort to begin negotiations with Madrid for a revision of the current political and economic status of Catalunya, and for a longer-term option to have a binding referendum on independence.

The European Union has said that they would not recognise the results of the 1^st October poll, but its spokesmen have abstained from taking a political position on the matter. Many member states with large minorities of EU citizens within their borders are, obviously, nervous and would not like this affair to set a precedent encouraging emancipation of provinces. So, Brussels is stuck between maintaining the status quo in national sovereignty and standing for its own principles on individual rights and on the freedom of EU citizens to make democratic choices. 

Catalunya explained to foreigners

Catalunya: A region apart - BBC documentary

An Erasmus Programme for SMEs?

Commission’s DG Employment is working on a proposal for the next EU Multi-annual Budget Frame to launch an Erasmus-like programme for employees of SMEs throughout the Union, starting in 2021.

The idea, labelled Mobile SME, consists of enabling employees of small and medium-sized companies, as well as self-employed persons, to work for a short period in a company of their sector in another EU country.

Mobile SME -- Commission's new initiative

For the DG Employment and the participating so far representatives of SMEs and Entrepreneurs associations, cross-border employee exchange is a “win-win situation”, as the employees, their employers and their host SMEs gain substantial know-how and improve in real terms their knowledge of the profession. The jobs of the employees who take leave in order to work abroad under the scheme will be guaranteed by their current firms, while the host SMEs will receive financial assistance from Brussels.

Tests in 2015-2016 have led the Commission to be optimistic as to the potential demand for the programme. Another test is being planned for 2018 to validate the previous findings.

One of the intentions of the Commission may be the democratisation of cross-border learning on-the-job, a privilege so far reserved to managers and specialists working for large multinationals.

Learning on the job, as an exchange worker.
Here: Epic Google Campus, Ireland. Courtesy: Google, Inc.