Independence: divisions in Barcelona, cooling-off in Madrid, Halloween in Brussels?
The political sort of Cataluña (pronounced
Catalunya) remained last week at the top of the news from Spain. On Monday, the
head of the separatist coalition was expected to declare the independence of
the Catalan province, following the victory of his political movement in the 1st
October referendum. He did not, however, cross that line, preferring to launch
to the central government, in Madrid, an invitation to discuss the modalities
of the separation.
The immediate reaction of the Spanish Prime
Minister was to demand a clear position from Barcelona: are the Catalans
declaring independence or not? His question was assorted with a threat: in the
affirmative, he would trigger Article 155 of the National Constitution, which
provides for prohibition of sedition by an autonomous province and grants to
the central government the powers to use the armed forces in order to impose
order, and to abolish the autonomy of the dissenting entity. This would mean
Catalunya returning to the status it had during the dictatorship years of
General Franco (1939-1975).
Constitutionalists on both sides were quick
to remark that applying Article 155 is not as simple as some politicians
believe and that it might bring the whole country into chaos and provoke the
reaction of foreign states and of the international financial community.
Meanwhile, the views of the independentist
parties are increasingly split among those who want an immediate implementation
of the result of the referendum and those who would prefer patience and a
negotiated divorce with Madrid. The reasons for the latter are mostly economic:
in the nine days after the vote more than 500 firms headquartered in Barcelona
have announced their decision to relocate to Madrid, fearing that independence
would cause rapid exit of the independent region from the Euro and commercial
isolation from the EU.
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| Barcelona -- Avenida Gaudi |
In fact, the Commission has been avoiding
to take a clear position on Catalunya’s vote which favours independence. Its
president Jean-Clause Juncker said on Friday that he was “very concerned” with
the prospect of the Catalans splitting from Spain. He said that if it happened,
other EU member states would experience similar events. “It is already difficult
to govern a Union of 28 states, even 27…I don’t want to be in a position to
have to deal with 98 members”, he added.
Catalunya had asked before the referendum
for the Commission or the European Council to mediate between Barcelona and
Madrid and find an amicable way for the separation. But Brussels had declined
the request, saying that the only way for a Union institution to be involved
was through an invitation to intervene by both conflicting parties. It should
be reminded that Juncker had on 14 September declared that he would respect the
result of the referendum, even if it meant independence for Catalunya.
A the end of the week, Madrid moderated its
tone, after the central government admitted that it would have to revise
downwards its projections for growth for 2018. It made allusions to the
possibility of focusing the forthcoming negotiations with the break-out region
on granting the latter more powers to manage its own financial income—a long
standing point of tension between the parties.
Euro. Disunited Eastern Europe
While Spain and Catalunya are obviously
moving apart, Juncker faces another strong headache. The Eastern members of the
EU, who joined in 2004, 2007 and 2013 are in growing disagreement with one
another on the emerging monetary policy of Brussels and of the leading powers
of the Union.
French President Emmanuel Macron in
September announced his plan to “deepen the Eurozone integration”, by enlarging
it in order to have a common currency throughout the EU. Juncker echoed the
intention, in his speech on the ‘State of the Union’ on 13 September:
“If we want the euro to unite rather than divide our Continent, then it should be more than the currency of a select group of countries. The euro is meant to be the single currency of the Union,” he concluded.
The more recent member states, Bulgaria,
Croatia and Romania, have expressed their willingness to go along with the
project. But other Eastern countries—the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland—are
sceptical, even hostile to the idea. Their current main concerns are their
comparatively low and stagnating GDP per capita, migration, defence (looking at
Russia), and terrorism. They are not necessarily against the common currency,
but they resent any move by Brussels and Paris to impose their timing on them. Brexit
has also added to their questioning of the true meaning of European
Integration. Spirits are not likely to calm, as we are moving towards the
elections of 2019 for the European Parliament.
German President: “Reconciliation, the European Model for Peace”
In Rome last weekend and Monday, for the
commemoration of the 500th anniversary of the Reformation of the
Church by the Protestants of Martin Luther (1517), the German President Frank-Walter Steimeier seized the opportunity
to remind to his audience that Europe has experienced devastating wars
throughout its history, but has survived thanks to its prevailing culture of
reconciliation.
“From Britain and Catalonia, to Poland and Greece […] it is clear the effect people’s emotions can have on politics,” he said. “Emotions and feelings are never secondary.”
And he added:
“Reconciliation between Protestants and Catholics could be used as a model for coexistence in Europe.”
True. But
reconciliation always followed conflict, such as the Thirty Years War
(1618-1648), which put the Protestants and the Catholic against each other,
causing tremendous casualties and massive displacements of populations.
According to historians, Germany lost 20 percent of its people. Nevertheless,
the ‘European Way’ still remains the best remedy for halting ethnic and
religious hatred. Ideally, it should be adopted before, rather than after
disaster!
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| February 1945, Yalta -- Charchill and Stalin Reconciliation of interests, before the Cold War! |
Competition. Commission’s New Target: Food Retail Distribution
The Commission has plans for a new war:
‘straiten up’ the food retail industry of the EU. Brussels is considering a
series of laws to discipline the major supermarkets, which have been,
apparently, abusing of their bargaining power in respect to the farming
community.
On the Commission’s list: Tesco, Carrefour,
Lidl, and a few others. Updates in the coming weeks.
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| EU farmers -- Never happy? |
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