European Council: A Slippery--And Sleepy--Week Ahead?

Informal Summit, 19-20 October

The European Council will hold on 19-20 October in Brussels a Summit of the Heads of State and Government of the EU member states. The meeting is organised by the rotating Presidency of the Council of the EU (Consilium), which this semester is held by Estonia. Its sessions will be chaired by The European Council’s President Donald Tusk.

The agenda features the following discussion items:

• Migration
• Digital Europe – Digital Single Market
• Defence
• External Relations
• Brexit Negotiations – Progress

Non-committal Re-evaluation of Turkey’s Membership Application

The discussion on External Relations is expected to be dedicated to the current status of the relationship between candidate state Turkey and the Union. There is growing tension since the beginning of 2017 in the rapports between the parties, and the 28 will explore the possible avenues forward and attempt to determine the attitude to adopt.

The members of the European Council will examine a status report to be submitted by the Commission. Political sources during the weekend were speculating that the image stemming from the report should be bleak.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will face a critical audience among her peers, who consider that she has given the wrong signals to Ankara with the prompt and generous offer in 2015-2016 of 3 billion Euros, renewable, in exchange for Turkish cooperation in controlling the inflow of Middle Eastern immigrants to the Balkans and Europe.

Merkel is in a particularly tough spot, as not only the opposition, but also her political allies are sceptical about her judgment. She has volunteered in recent weeks to adopt a tough stance vis-à-vis the Turkish government, but several member states are asking for more: the cancellation or, at least, suspension of Turkey’s accession to membership process. Other member states have in the past few days proposed economic sanctions, including freezing the assets of Turkish politicians deposited in the EU-EEA. She has called for moderation, preferring a protracted continuation of negotiations, without a guarantee for eventual membership.

Commenting on the expectations for this week’s Summit, Chancellor Merkel said in an online announcement on Saturday:

“We will certainly not take any decisions, but I would like to hear my colleagues’ opinions as to how they see bilateral relations with Turkey, and what conclusions we can potentially draw from them.”

Angela Merkel - First among equals - European Council, Commemoration of Treaty of Rome, 25-3-2017

After Brexit and Catalunya, the Union is again divided on an issue of importance to its future. There are three camps among the member states in relation to Turkey’s membership:

Those who are in favour—Ireland; Italy, Malta; Spain, and Portugal; Finland and Sweden; Estonia, Latvla, and Lithuania; Romania and Slovenia; Greece and Cyprus. The reasons for a positive position vary widely among themselves. The first group and Romania are mostly interested in trade.  Greece and Cyprus prefer to see Turkey as a fellow member rather than a potential enemy before their doors. The other groups have in recent months become less supportive, as they have concerns on the willingness of Turkey to comply with the political accession criteria of the EU.

Those who are clearly against: Germany, Austria and Belgium.

Those who have traditionally been against but have kept their position blurred in the past 18 months: France, Luxembourg and Denmark.

Those who are unsure, because of domestic pressures: UK, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Croatia.

The above positions are those of the political parties in power. Opposition parties have often very different views—favourable or unfavourable to Turkey’s membership. And there are no reliable data about the mood of the European citizens on enlargement. The last official EU-wide survey was apparently held by Eurobarometer in 2010-2011.

The admission of a new member of the size and political weight of Turkey will entail adjustment of the Treaties (Art. 49 TEU). There will be tense negotiations at various levels and on different substantive subjects between Ankara and Brussels. The negotiated agreement will have to be accepted unanimously by the EU incumbent members and Turkey and be ratified by all contracting states, per their respective constitutional provisions—mostly through parliamentary procedure or referendum.

As it is improbable that the 28 will take this week a clear position on what to do now with Turkey’s accession application, enlargement towards the Southeast will return on the agenda time and again for the years to come.

Media sources: European Council,, Südwest Presse, Deutsche Welle, Die Welt.-- Image: Piotr Tracz, Wikimedia Commons